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No one reason can explain why high school students drop out.

  That becomes apparent in conversations with adults enrolled in an employment skills program called FaithWorks of Abilene. 

Marshall dropped out as a sophomore when he got a good-paying roofing job.

Julie dropped out after the eighth grade when her mom struggled with mental illness.

Jerron said he dropped out when his dreams faded of being an NBA star and, “I just started running with the wrong crowd.”

No story seems the same as school systems try to prevent students from dropping out of school.

Education research and theories abound, including career academies like the Career Tech High School being proposed for 600 to 800 Abilene Independent School District students in a $25 million bond election Nov. 3.

Studies generally agree career academies — with smaller enrollment and specialized education meant to keep students interested — can bring positive economic impact on students and communities.

However, findings seem more mixed on whether they are the all-encompassing answer to dropout prevention and academic achievement.

Why do kids drop out?

Of the 1,052 students who entered the AISD’s Class of 2008 as freshmen in fall 2004, 90 were dropouts (8.6 percent), according to the Texas Education Agency’s latest statistics.

“Dropouts, by nature, are tough to track to find out why they left,” said Cathy Ashby, AISD associate superintendent for curriculum and instruction, at a school board workshop earlier this year.

Some of the best information on dropouts comes from a national study in 2006 by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. It reveals dropout warning signs like low grades, behavior problems, lack of school involvement, pregnancy and absentee parents.

Then, students offered reasons why they dropped out. Among their answers, 47 percent said classes were not interesting, 69 percent were not motivated to work hard, 81 percent wanted better teachers, 75 percent wanted smaller classes with more individualized instruction, and 32 percent said they had to get a job to make money.

One theory: smaller schools

AISD Superintendent David Polnick is a proponent of smaller schools.

“They aren’t the most financially efficient, but they are the most educationally proficient,” he has said.

School size studies abounded in the late 1990s, including a 1997 study by the Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis that discovered students performed better in math and reading in schools with 600 to 900 students — not too small and not too large.

“That’s the ideal size for a school,” Ashby said, noting that’s about the size proposed for the Career Tech High School.

A TEA report revealed the smaller school impact on Texas high school performance was mixed.

The 1999 policy research report was released as Texas school populations showed signs of unprecedented swelling. It revealed smaller high schools seemed to result in slight increases in retention, attendance and math scores. However, school size had no significant impact on dropout rates or other academic subjects. Also, students in larger schools performed better on college entrance exams.

The Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis study acknowledges smaller schools are more expensive and could limit curriculum breadth, so the researchers suggested, “A reasonable alternative to building new schools is a movement to create a set of smaller schools-within-schools inside larger schools.”

That’s how AISD proposed to set up Career Tech High School, which would be divided into four career academies — business administration, professional services, industrial technology and natural/environmental services.

Career Academy research

One of the most commonly referenced studies on the long-term impact of this model followed students from nine career academies scattered around the country. They were compared to peers who applied for the schools but weren’t selected in the lottery.

The study initially reported lower absence and dropout rates among at-risk kids in the academies, but a follow-up report published in 2008 revealed this “did not translate into impacts on graduation or post-secondary enrollment rates.”

Also, nearly one-third of the students initially enrolled left the academies before the end of their senior year, according to the Manpower Demonstration Research Corp. study.

On an economic note, the study found academy students eight years later were earning 11 percent more income each year than the non-academy group. Also, males had more positive family and marriage success.

The academies used in the study all had small learning communities with career themes and local business partnerships, much like the Career Tech Academy proposed for AISD. No mention was made whether they were stand-alone schools.

MDRC followed two other similar programs in Kansas City and Philadelphia. They showed some results in attendance, performance and retention rates.

In a following MDRC report, researcher Janet Quint admitted all those programs shared the same goal to ensure graduation and prepare students for post-high school, but “none achieved that goal.” However, she argues the small impacts shown are significant, especially when no other well-researched high school reform models have produced better results.

The Ford Partnership for Advanced Studies highlights some success with career academies in California, including Sacramento City schools that show major improvement in dropout rates and behavior in five years of implementation. FPAS also highlights Bay Area, California, career academies, where students posted dropout rates 50 percent lower than non-academy students in the same schools.

Closer to home

In 2005-06, AISD moved toward the smaller learning communities by starting a pilot program for Freshmen Academies. All freshmen were included in 2007-08 and attended most classes with the same group of students and teachers, a model that would be expanded at Career Tech High.

“When students have the same teachers, they are whole lot less likely to get lost in the crowd at a big school,” Ashby said. “It’s kind of like a family.”

In 2003, about 16 percent of freshmen had to repeat the grade. Retention rates dropped to 12 percent in 2006 than spiked at 16 percent again the next year. Since then, retention rates have continually improved to about 9 percent. The program also includes extra tutoring and new academic intervention options.

Holland Medical High School is another example of a smaller learning community that district officials want to expand with the Career Tech High School.

About 140 students spend partial days at the medical magnet on the Hardin-Simmons University campus. Dropout rates aren’t followed, but the schools’ counselor says he’s not aware of any.

“Of the 11th-graders that came last year, almost 80 percent chose to come back to Holland for 12th grade,” Phil Ashby said. That’s significant, he said, considering many had already earned the nursing or phlebotomy certificates they needed to get a good job.

Most of the research doesn’t spell out the need for career academies to have a new building.

When asked if he likes the magnet program, the building is one main point senior Ruben Cadena brought up.

“Someone went out of their way and said these kids are going to be somebody, so why don’t we build them a school,” he said. “To me it was a blessing to know we’re going to get to be all together and have the same interest.”

Financial impact

It’s unclear how much the school district could benefit financially from retaining some dropouts, said Keith Dowell, AISD chief financial officer.

The state sends AISD about $5,300 per student based on average daily attendance, which makes it difficult to know if students who drop out toward the end of the school year might be drawing in per-student funds anyway.

Polnick has said students potentially retained due to the Career Tech High School could help the district offset some operational expenses for the new school, but nobody can attach monetary values to those theories.

While some savings could be expected if fewer students drop out, “There are just too many factors to attach any numbers to this,” Dowell said.

Other theories

The career-centered magnet high school is not the only reform strategy researchers tout these days.

Middle schools may be the key, according to a study released this year by Ed Fuller with the University of Texas’ University Council for Educational Administration. A 2008 study by ACT also indicated strengthening middle schools is the best to prepare students for graduation and college.

To prevent dropouts, San Antonio ISD just invested in Learning Plans on Demand, a Web-based program teachers use to quickly create individual learning plans for students.

And Jerron, who has earned his GED in recent years, has his own high school reform theory.

“Career Tech High School would have been a good option, but I probably wouldn’t have gone if someone hadn’t guided me,” he said. “I just needed someone to reach out.”